Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to total 5.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
In regards to air yards, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the lofty 90th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a colossal 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
Jahmyr Gibbs has been in the 98th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 25.3 figure this year.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 33.4 per game) this year.
This year, the tough Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing RBs: a meager 5.2 yards.

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