Jahmyr Gibbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 7th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 45.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Among all running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 75th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 37.5% of the workload in his offense's running game.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The Packers defensive ends grade out as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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