Jahmyr Gibbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
The model projects the Lions to be the 7th-most run-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.5% run rate.
The Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
Among all running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 77th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 41.1% of the workload in his team's ground game.
When it comes to run support (and the importance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Detroit Lions profiles as the 5th-best in the league last year.

Favors Under

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

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