Jahmyr Gibbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+108/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
Among all running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 78th percentile for carries this year, comprising 43.3% of the workload in his team's running game.
The Lions O-line profiles as the 5th-best in football last year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Chicago's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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