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Jahan Dotson

Jahan Dotson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders

Jahan Dotson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Washington Commanders O-line has allowed their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Washington Commanders have utilized play action on 34.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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