Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive approach to tilt 13.0% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Commanders O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The New York Giants pass defense has not been good when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New York's CB corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.
After totaling 78.0 air yards per game last season, Jahan Dotson has produced significantly less this season, currently averaging 46.0 per game.
Jahan Dotson's 33.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 44.0.