Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Commanders offensive approach to lean 12.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
The Falcons pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.44 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Commanders to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
After accumulating 78.0 air yards per game last year, Jahan Dotson has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 51.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Jahan Dotson has been incorporated much less in his team's passing game.
Jahan Dotson has notched a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).
Jahan Dotson's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 64.4% to 61.0%.