Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:46 AM EST

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.7%) vs. WRs this year (71.7%).

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
After accumulating 78.0 air yards per game last year, Jahan Dotson has regressed heavily this year, currently pacing 55.0 per game.
Jahan Dotson's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 44.0.
Jahan Dotson's 7.2 adjusted yards per target this season represents a remarkable decline in his receiving prowess over last season's 9.4 mark.
Jahan Dotson profiles as one of the bottom wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.