Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jahan Dotson to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game this week (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.4% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 124.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.