Jahan Dotson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have utilized play action on 34.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 4th-least TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.74 per game since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.