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Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Jacoby Brissett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in football against the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 54.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (49.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 124.5 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

The model projects Jacoby Brissett to throw 28.3 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

Opposing teams have averaged 26.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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