Jacoby Brissett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jacoby Brissett

NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Jacoby Brissett's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 60.2% to 66.4%.
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 9th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.60 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 50.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

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