Jacoby Brissett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 2:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Jacoby Brissett's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 60.5% to 64.8%.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 51.2% red zone pass rate.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 25.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.