Jacoby Brissett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+198/-260).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line has given their quarterback 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 52.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 32.2 passes this week, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.