Jacoby Brissett Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to accumulate 4.8 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (15.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.7% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Jacoby Brissett's ground efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 5.80 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.65 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.