Jacoby Brissett Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 2:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+425/-952).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +436 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +425.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the most run-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 49.4% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
Jacoby Brissett has rushed for 0.25 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among quarterbacks (83rd percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.32 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.