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Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns

Jacoby Brissett Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1002).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +439 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +438.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.6% red zone run rate.

The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.

The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

Jacoby Brissett has run for 0.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in football among QBs (89th percentile).

Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-most TDs in the league (1.11 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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