Jacoby Brissett Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · Cleveland Browns

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 209.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 211.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 209.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Jacoby Brissett's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.5% to 68.1%.
Jacoby Brissett's pass-game efficiency has improved this year, accumulating 7.05 yards-per-target compared to a measly 5.57 mark last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 30.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Jacoby Brissett has been among the weakest QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 146.0 yards per game while grading out in the 13th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.74 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.