Jacoby Brissett Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · Cleveland Browns

Completions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 22, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Jacoby Brissett's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 60.5% to 64.8%.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 25.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season (68.5%).