Jacoby Brissett Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jacoby Brissett

NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · New England Patriots

Carries

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 20, 2024 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 4th-most run-oriented team in the league (44.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Patriots.
Jacoby Brissett has been a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this season (8.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (1.7%).
The New York Jets defensive ends project as the 3rd-worst DE corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are huge underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.
In this contest, Jacoby Brissett is forecasted by the model to garner the 10th-fewest rush attempts out of all QBs with 2.6.

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