Jack Stoll Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jack Stoll

NFL · Player Props

Jack Stoll

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jack Stoll Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).
The projections expect Jack Stoll to be much more involved in his team's passing game in this week's game (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (1.7% in games he has played).
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Eagles grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 33.9 per game) this year.
With a puny 1.1 adjusted catches per game (17th percentile) since the start of last season, Jack Stoll places as one of the worst pass-game tight ends in the league.
Jack Stoll's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 69.1% to 60.9%.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the league.

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