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Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 136.5 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.

The Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

After comprising 64.1% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, Isiah Pacheco has played a smaller part in the run game this season, currently accounting for just 50.3%.

Isiah Pacheco has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (45.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).

Isiah Pacheco's 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a substantial regression in his rushing prowess over last season's 4.7 rate.

The Texans defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.16 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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