Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The model projects Isiah Pacheco to notch 15.0 carries in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been much more involved in his offense's run game this season (61.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (40.9%).
The Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the league last year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles run defense has conceded a measly 66.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the best in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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