Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (40.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.0% in games he has played).
Isiah Pacheco's rushing efficiency (5.08 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (80th percentile among RBs).
Isiah Pacheco has been among the top RBs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.39 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 3.37 yards-per-carry.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.