Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 69.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to accrue 14.3 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (59.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (43.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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