Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (36.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.7% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.14 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.