Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-500).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (34.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (17.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 35.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the least touchdowns in football (0.14 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.