Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+226/-364).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +310 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +226.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be much more involved in his offense's run game near the goal line this week (44.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 35.7% red zone run rate.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.