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Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 3

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+417/-920).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -877 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -920.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 35.6% red zone run rate.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.58 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season.

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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