Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (52.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.6% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-most TDs in football (1.22 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends profile as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 33.9% red zone run rate.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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