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Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco Receptions
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (68.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 26.4 per game) this year.

Isiah Pacheco has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (32.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.7%).

Isiah Pacheco's 1.3 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a meaningful diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 3.1 figure.

Isiah Pacheco's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 87.8% to 73.6%.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

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