Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 9, 2024 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (66.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.6 plays per game.
Isiah Pacheco has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 10.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the league this year.
With an excellent 3.1 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Isiah Pacheco ranks as one of the top pass-game running backs in football.

Favors Under

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
This year, the fierce Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a puny 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Chargers linebackers project as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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