Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
This week, Isiah Pacheco is expected by the model to slot into the 76th percentile among RBs with 3.2 targets.
Isiah Pacheco has been a much bigger part of his team's passing attack this year (9.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (2.2%).
Isiah Pacheco's 3.0 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a noteable progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 0.8 mark.
This year, the porous Broncos pass defense has surrendered a massive 87.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 5th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Broncos, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
Isiah Pacheco's 90.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 100.0% rate.

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