Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-195/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
Isiah Pacheco has been a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this season (7.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (2.2%).
Isiah Pacheco's 2.1 adjusted catches per game this year shows a a remarkable progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 0.8 rate.
This year, the porous Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered a massive 88.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Denver's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.
Isiah Pacheco's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 100.0% to 81.8%.

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