Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in a stellar 99.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Isiah Pacheco's 3.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the NFL: 14th percentile for RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the worst running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 24th percentile among RBs.

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