Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:26 AM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Isiah Pacheco to notch 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Isiah Pacheco's 8.8% Target Share this year indicates a noteable progression in his air attack volume over last year's 2.2% rate.
Isiah Pacheco's 2.7 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a material progression in his receiving ability over last year's 0.8 mark.
The Packers safeties project as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
Isiah Pacheco's 86.5% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant drop-off in his receiving skills over last year's 100.0% rate.

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