Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 2:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-129/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in an impressive 100.0% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Isiah Pacheco's 2.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the league: 13th percentile for RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the worst pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 21st percentile among RBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.