Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -240.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to accrue 2.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (7.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the worst pass-catching running backs this year, averaging just 0.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 20th percentile among RBs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.