Isiah Pacheco Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Dec 30, 2022 8:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-137/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the most reliable receivers in football among RBs, catching a stellar 100.0% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 100th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has allowed their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Isiah Pacheco's 2.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in the NFL: 13th percentile for RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the bottom pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a measly 0.7 receptions per game while ranking in the 15th percentile among RBs.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.