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Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -111.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Chiefs O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Isiah Pacheco's 32.8% Route Participation Rate this year represents a remarkable drop-off in his passing game volume over last year's 44.7% rate.

When it comes to air yards, Isiah Pacheco grades out in the paltry 10th percentile among RBs this year, with just -3.0 per game.

Isiah Pacheco's 10.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year illustrates a significant diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year's 18.0 mark.

Isiah Pacheco's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 87.8% to 73.7%.

The Bills pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.5%) vs. running backs this year (79.5%).

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