Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-136/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this game, Isiah Pacheco is projected by the model to finish in the 88th percentile among RBs with 4.1 targets.
Isiah Pacheco has been a more integral piece of his team's air attack this year (9.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (2.2%).

Favors Under

As it relates to air yards, Isiah Pacheco grades out in the paltry 3rd percentile among RBs this year, with just -7.0 per game.
Isiah Pacheco's 87.3% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a noteable diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season's 100.0% mark.
The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the best safety corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

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