Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
This week, Isiah Pacheco is expected by the model to slot into the 76th percentile among RBs with 3.2 targets.
Isiah Pacheco has been a much bigger part of his team's passing attack this year (9.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (2.2%).
Isiah Pacheco's 24.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year represents a significant progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 8.0 rate.
With a terrific 7.4 adjusted yards per target (88th percentile) this year, Isiah Pacheco ranks among the best running backs in the pass game in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Broncos, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
When it comes to air yards, Isiah Pacheco ranks in the lowly 5th percentile among running backs this year, accruing just -7.0 per game.
Isiah Pacheco's 90.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 100.0% rate.

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