Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Isiah Pacheco has been a more important option in his offense's passing game this year (8.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (2.2%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Isiah Pacheco's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, accumulating 10.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 0.00 rate last season.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (39.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
As it relates to air yards, Isiah Pacheco grades out in the measly 6th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accruing just -3.0 per game.
Isiah Pacheco's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 100.0% to 75.0%.
The Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against running backs this year, conceding 4.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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