Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown weak efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, allowing 7.03 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Isiah Pacheco has accrued a measly -3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 7th percentile among running backs.
Isiah Pacheco's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 100.0% to 79.2%.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 24th percentile.

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