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Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -625 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.5% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

Isiah Pacheco's 46.2% Route Participation% this year marks a substantial improvement in his air attack usage over last year's 19.3% mark.

The leading projections forecast Isiah Pacheco to accrue 3.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Isiah Pacheco has put up a mere -7.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 3rd percentile when it comes to RBs.

Isiah Pacheco's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 100.0% to 89.4%.

The 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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