Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-136/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Isiah Pacheco is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 81st percentile among running backs with 3.7 targets.
Isiah Pacheco's 8.2% Target Rate this year illustrates a meaningful improvement in his pass attack usage over last year's 2.2% mark.
Isiah Pacheco has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (8.0).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
As it relates to air yards, Isiah Pacheco ranks in the paltry 6th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -6.0 per game.
Isiah Pacheco's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 100.0% to 84.3%.

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