Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 7, 2023 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in an impressive 100.0% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Isiah Pacheco has put up a mere -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 9th percentile among running backs.
Isiah Pacheco's 2.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the league: 13th percentile for RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the worst RBs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in football (just 21.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.