Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+106/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Isiah Pacheco has put up a measly -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 11th percentile among RBs.
Isiah Pacheco's 0.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in football: 10th percentile for running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 22.0) versus running backs this year.