Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+270/-385).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +270.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to accrue 2.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (7.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Isiah Pacheco has totaled a puny -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile among RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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