Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in a stellar 100.0% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among RBs, averaging a terrific 10.19 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Isiah Pacheco has accumulated a meager -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 12th percentile among running backs.
Isiah Pacheco's 2.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in football: 14th percentile for RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been among the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.